'Unavailability' of Livestock Feed
Signals: U.S. Food Shortages Are Here


Sept. 19—Food shortages have now hit the United States, in addition to the crisis in the international supply chain, which is now consigning millions in Africa to hunger and starvation. U.S. production of wheat, corn, and rice in 2011, are all down from last year. Levels of grain stocks are plunging, and the prospects for next year are grim. This is now manifest in the corn-using livestock feed chain, which can no longer even line up sufficient, or affordable supplies for producers of beef, milk, poultry, and eggs. Thousands of farmers and ranchers are downsizing, quitting, or otherwise facing ruin, liquidating their beef cattle inventory, flocks, and milking herds.

Lyndon LaRouche warned about this contingency months ago. The time for action is now, in conjunction with imposing a shift in the United States to a Glass-Steagall credit system, and undertaking the needed emergency and long-term food and agriculture measures. Don't do this, and you'd better give up eating.

This month, the combines started rolling in the Corn Belt states—Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana, and Ohio—but even if the harvest goes perfectly, this year's ending stocks—the volume of carryover of corn crop this year to next—will be at the minuscule level of 5% of usage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture gave a 5.3% stocks-to-use ratio as their official figure for corn carryover in their Sept. 12 monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), but this low a ratio is just a construct, to cover for the fact that we are short of corn. As a nation, we will have on hand only 17 days supply. That is a polite term for shortfall (Figure 1).

The immediate cause is the volume of corn going into ethanol, which took off under George W. Bush, and is now backed to the hilt by Barack Obama, as a screwball go-green policy. The share of U.S. corn production used for ethanol has this year exceeded that going for livestock feed! Ethanol will use at least 40% of corn output, and maybe up to 50% or more. Corn for animal feed is down to 37%. The share of corn for other non-ethanol usages is squeezed—exports, corn products (starch, sweetener, oil, corn meal, starches, corn flakes, etc.). Historically, 55% of the annual corn crop has gone to the animal feed chain, but no longer.

On Sept. 14, six representatives of the entire spectrum of feeders of livestock (hogs, cattle, milk cows, chickens, and turkeys) testified on the crisis to the House Agriculture Committee, Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy and Poultry, on the "issue of feed availability and its effect on the livestock, dairy, and poultry industries" (see below).

"Permit me to suggest that a more appropriate title of the hearing would be 'Feed Unavailability,' " is how the representative of the National Chicken Council, Michael Welch, began his presentation to the hearing. All of the witnesses recounted horror stories of the present situation. Excerpts of their statements are given below, to document the scope of the worsening crisis, and the need to intervene now.


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